A system and method is disclosed for predicting and comparing wear scenarios in a rail system. The method can include generating and running a contact model of the interaction between a rail and a train car to produce a simulated loading on the rail for a predetermined time period; generating and running a wear model based on the material properties and/or friction modifier properties of the rail using the simulated loading to produce a simulated wear profile of the rail for the predetermined time period; obtaining a grinding profile to be performed on the rail during the predetermined time period; and generating an updated rail profile by modifying the rail profile by the simulated wear profile and the grinding profile. The method can predict and compare crack growth over time, and provide a financial model and comparison of costs and benefits for different maintenance protocols for the rail system.