A method for determining customer lifetime value for a cohort of customers using an incentive system to provide for geographically limited rewards earned for transactions includes tracking payment card transactions between enrolled payment cardholders and enrolled merchants, creating a database of rewards eligible transactions, instructing a virtual payment card issuer to apply the rewards amount for each rewards eligible transaction to an account, receiving transaction authorization requests from the virtual payment card issuer corresponding to enrolled cardholders requesting to spend rewards within their corresponding account, if the transaction is occurring within a prescribed geographic area in which rewards can be spent, transmitting an authorization for the virtual card issuer to complete the transaction using the rewards, an enrolled payment cardholder attribute database, and applying a matching algorithm to the attribute database resulting in prediction based on similarity between one or more attributes with one or more other enrolled payment cardholders.