In an approach for predicting an optimal system upgrade, a processor detects an upgrade is available for a system of a first user computing device. A processor gathers a set of live data from an environment of the first user computing device using a process mining software. A processor compares the set of live data to a set of historical data stored in a knowledge corpus to identify a second user computing device similar to the first user computing device. Responsive to identifying the second user computing device, a processor performs a pattern recognition to generate one or more critical recommendations associated with the upgrade for the system of the first user computing device. A processor schedules the upgrade for the system of the first user computing device during a period of time, wherein the period of time is scheduled consistent with the one or more critical recommendations.