The present disclosure provides for predictive part maintenance by generating a reliability curve for an aircraft based on historic removals; setting a removal threshold on the reliability curve; tracking an installation of a given instance of the aircraft part into a given aircraft; tracking a number of cycles of the given instance of the aircraft part based on operations of the given aircraft in which the given instance of the aircraft part is installed; and in response to the number of cycles of the given instance of the aircraft part satisfying the removal threshold, transmitting a service alert to an operator of the given aircraft.