In one embodiment, a device identifies a plurality of paths between a pair of network addresses, wherein one of the pair of network addresses is associated with an online application. The device obtains telemetry data from the plurality of paths for the online application. The device computes, based on the telemetry data, fate sharing metrics for the plurality of paths. The device controls routing of application traffic between the pair of network addresses, based on the fate sharing metrics for the plurality of paths.