A computing system identifies mitigation actions in response to failures within a computer network. A service level objective is obtained by the computing system for client-resource data flows traversing the computer network between client-side and resource-side nodes. Indication of a failure event at a network location of the computer network is obtained. For each mitigation action of a set of candidate mitigation actions, an estimated impact to a distribution of the service level objective is determined for the mitigation action by applying simulated client-resource data flows to a network topology model of the computer network in combination with the mitigation action and the failure event. One or more target mitigation actions are identified by the computing system from the set of candidate mitigation actions based on a comparison of the estimated impacts of the set of candidate mitigation actions.