The disclosed systems, structures, and methods are directed to risk assessment of an optical network. A simulation framework includes a risk map engine including a performance prediction engine that generates a simulation of the optical network based at least in part on an input network topology and/or service map. The prediction performance engine runs the simulation to predict, based at least in part on received network telemetry data, direct and indirect impacts on the optical network of a risk factor represented in a what-if scenario. The risk map engine includes a risk assessment engine that determines a risk associated with the risk factor based at least in part on the predicted direct and indirect impacts and on a likelihood of occurrence of the risk factor. The risk assessment engine generates a risk map showing aggregate risks to the optical network from a plurality of risk factors.