Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on computer storage media, for identifying wildfire in satellite imagery. In some implementations, a server obtains a satellite image of a geographic region and a date corresponding to when the satellite image was generated. The server determines a number of pixels in the satellite image that are indicated as on fire. The server obtains satellite imagery of the geographic region from before the date. The server generates a statistical distribution from the satellite imagery. The server determines a likelihood that the satellite image illustrates fire based on a comparison of the determined number of pixels in the satellite image that are indicated as on fire to the generated statistical distribution. The server can compare the determined likelihood to a threshold. In response to comparing the determined likelihood to the threshold, the server provides an indication that the satellite image illustrates fire.