An LED driver measures a voltage across the LED and a temperature associated with the LED. The LED driver drives the LED to operate below a knee in the voltage/current curve of the LED and derives an expected voltage across the LED from the temperature of the LED, the LED driving current, and a predetermined relation between the expected LED voltage and at least one of LED temperature and LED driving current. The LED driver determines if the measured voltage across the LED exceeds the expected voltage across the LED, and establishes, based on the determination, if an LED approaching end of life warning is to be generated. Thus, an approaching end of life may be determined by the LED driver while the LED is still operational.