An example method comprises receiving first historical meso-scale numerical weather predictions (NWP) and power flow information for a geographic distribution area, correcting for overfitting of the historical NWP predictions, reducing parameters in the first historical NWP predictions, training first power flow models using the first reduced, corrected historical NWP predictions and the historical power flow information for all or parts of the first geographic distribution area, receiving current NWP predictions for the first geographic distribution area, applying any number of first power flow models to the current NWP predictions to generate any number of power flow predictions, comparing one or more of the any number of power flow predictions to one or more first thresholds to determine significance of reverse power flows, and generating a first report including at least one prediction of the reverse power flow and identifying the first geographic distribution area.