A method for calculating the probable damage size in a structure includes defining a configuration of an array of transducers mounted on the structure. Any pair of the transducers includes an actuator and a sensor, and each pair defines a propagation path in the structure. All propagation paths that are affected by being touched by a damage of the structure, and all adjacent paths that are untouched and thereby unaffected by the damage, are identified. A range of sizes of the damage is determined, and a probability density of the damage versus damage size is calculated on the basis of the transducer array configuration and the affected and unaffected propagation paths identified. On the basis of the probability density, a most probable damage size is determined, and the probability of the damage being greater or less than the most probable damage size is also determined.