A method and system for determining a predicted flash endurance Vt of a flash cell after N program/erase cycles. The method includes measuring a Vtp value and a Vte value of the flash cell after a cycle number in a range from 2000 to less than N/2 program/erase cycles; calculating a Vtp slope of a line starting from the measured Vtp value in a half logarithmic graph representation based on historical test data from flash cells of wafers having substantially the same process steps compared to the flash cell under investigation; calculating a Vte slope of a line starting from the measured Vte value in a half logarithmic graph representation based on the historical test data; and determining the Vtp and Vte values at 2 million program/erase cycles by extrapolating from the measured Vte and Vtp values.