A method for data storage includes programming a first group of analog memory cells at a first time at a known first temperature, so as to cause the analog memory cells in the first group to assume respective first analog storage values. Respective second analog storage values are read from the analog memory cells in the first group at a second time at which the analog memory cells are at a second temperature. A shift is estimated between the first analog storage values and the second analog storage values, and a memory access parameter is adjusted responsively to the estimated shift. A second group of the analog memory cells is accessed at the second temperature using the adjusted memory access parameter.