Invention Grant
US07865418B2 Price and risk evaluation system for financial product or its derivatives, dealing system, recording medium storing a price and risk evaluation program, and recording medium storing a dealing program
有权
金融产品或其衍生工具的价格和风险评估系统,交易系统,存储价格和风险评估程序的记录介质,以及存储交易程序的记录介质
- Patent Title: Price and risk evaluation system for financial product or its derivatives, dealing system, recording medium storing a price and risk evaluation program, and recording medium storing a dealing program
- Patent Title (中): 金融产品或其衍生工具的价格和风险评估系统,交易系统,存储价格和风险评估程序的记录介质,以及存储交易程序的记录介质
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Application No.: US11733057Application Date: 2007-04-09
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Publication No.: US07865418B2Publication Date: 2011-01-04
- Inventor: Yuji Uenohara , Ritsuo Yoshioka , Motohiko Onishi , Takahiro Tatsumi , Tadahiro Ohashi , Masatoshi Kawashima , Hiroaki Okuda
- Applicant: Yuji Uenohara , Ritsuo Yoshioka , Motohiko Onishi , Takahiro Tatsumi , Tadahiro Ohashi , Masatoshi Kawashima , Hiroaki Okuda
- Applicant Address: JP Kawasaki-shi
- Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba
- Current Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba
- Current Assignee Address: JP Kawasaki-shi
- Agency: Oblon, Spivak, McClelland, Maier & Neustadt, L.L.P.
- Priority: JPP11-242152 19990827; JPP2000-219655 20000719
- Main IPC: G06Q40/00
- IPC: G06Q40/00

Abstract:
A system for correctly evaluating a price distribution and a risk distribution for a financial product or its derivatives introduces a probability density function generated with a Boltzmann model at a higher accuracy than the Gaussian distribution for a probability density. The system has an initial value setup unit and an evaluation condition setup unit. Initial values include at least one of price, price change rate, and the price change direction of a financial product. The evaluation conditions include at least time steps and the number of trials. The Boltzmann model analysis unit receives the initial values and the evaluation conditions, and repeats simulations of price fluctuation, based on the Boltzmann model using a Monte Carlo method. A velocity/direction distribution setup unit supplies the probability distributions of the price, price change rate, and the price change direction for the financial product to the Boltzmann model analysis unit. A random number generator for a Monte Carlo method employed in the analysis by the Boltzmann model, and an output unit displays the analysis result. A dealing system applies the financial Boltzmann model to option pricing, and reproduces the characteristics of Leptokurcity and Fat-tail by linear Boltzmann equation in order to define risk-neutral and unique probability measures. Consequently, option prices can be evaluated in a risk-neutral and unique manner, taking into account Leptokurcity and Fat-tail of a price change distribution.
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