The present invention provides a balanced video distribution system, as well as corresponding methods and apparatus, which utilize feedback from the channel multiplexers as well as rate estimation and predictive rate control. Packets of a video stream are received at an input buffer. A transmission deadline is determined for the packets. A fullness level of the input buffer is also determined. A future time at which said packets can be transmitted may be estimated based on the buffer fullness level. A bit rate of the video stream can be adjusted based on the estimated future time and the transmission deadline. For example, the bit rate may be adjusted in proportion to a difference between the estimated future time and the transmission deadline.