An apparatus, system, and method are disclosed for estimating particulate production from a diesel engine. Engine conditions such as fuel rate, exhaust gas recirculation, and fuel injection timing are determined. Based on empirical evidence or theoretical calculations, or both, particulate production markers, each indicating a level of particulate production, are assigned to each engine condition. The markers are combined and the combined marker is used to interpolate between a minimum and a maximum level of particulate production from the engine to estimate a particulate production rate. The production rate may be combined with an oxidation rate to determine a particulate accumulation rate, which may in turn be combined with a particulate load estimate to produce a combined particulate load estimate. The combined estimate may be used to determine whether to initiate regeneration of a diesel particulate filter.