The disclosure proposes bit-error-rate (BER) and symbol-error-rate (SER) estimation techniques and its application to incremental-redundancy and rate-adaptation for modern-coded hybrid-ARQ systems. In particular, BER/SER estimators are proposed based on iterative refinement of mixture-density modeling of the bit/symbol decision metrics. For hybrid-ARQ systems, rate-adaptation functions are proposed based on BER/SER estimators for failed transmissions. Methods are disclosed for code-rate selection based on successfully decoded blocks as well as incremental parity size selection for retransmission of failed blocks Techniques disclosed here apply to forward-error-correction codes employed for digital data communication systems.