Systems, methods and computer program products for determining a learning curve value and modeling an associated profitability of a good are provided. According to one method of determining a learning curve value, recurring costs of producing each unit of the good are modeled as a function of potential learning curve values. Nonrecurring costs of producing each unit of the good are then modeled as a function of potential learning curve values. Next, the learning curve value is determined based upon the recurring costs model and the nonrecurring costs value such that the sum of the recurring costs and nonrecurring costs at the determined learning curve value is minimized over the potential learning curve values.