Architecture that employs probabilistic and/or decision-theoretic model(s) of application usage to predict application use and in view of bounded or limited-availability memory. The model(s) is applied with cost-benefit analysis to guide memory management in an operating system, in particular, for both decisions about prefetching and memory retention versus deletion or “paging out” of memory of lower priority items, to free up space for higher value items. Contextual information is employed in addition to computer action monitoring for predicting next applications to be launched. Prefetching is optimized so as to minimize user perceived latencies.