In general, techniques are described for applying adaptive thresholds to multicast streams within computer networks. For example, an access node may implement the techniques to facilitate efficient delivery of multicast streams. The access node comprises an interface that couples to a subscriber network having a subscriber device. The access node also includes a control unit that determines a multicast stream count reflecting current delivery of multicast streams to the subscriber network and a threshold value based on historical multicast stream counts delivered to the subscriber. The interface receives a message requesting to join a multicast group in accordance with a multicast management protocol. In response to this message, the control unit determines a projected stream count based on the above current multicast count. The control unit then compares the projected stream count to the threshold value, and admits the subscriber device to the multicast group based on the comparison.