A method and system that accurately predicts fuel consumption rates in a residential structure is provided. The present invention more accurately determines the amount of fuel required to maintain a residential structure at a consistent temperature, thereby allowing identification of various system anomalies that may occur over time. Further, the method and system accounts for a number of fuel usage variables such as pilot light and domestic hot water usage in a manner that allows improved accuracy in determining the amount of fuel required to maintain a residential structure at a consistent temperature, thereby allowing identification of various system anomalies that may occur over time.