A substrate having a plurality of zones is polished and spectra are measured. For each zone, a first linear function fits a sequence of index values associated with reference spectra that best match the measured spectra. A projected time at which a reference zone will reach the target index value is determined based on the first linear function, and for at least one adjustable zone, a polishing parameter adjustment is calculated such that the adjustable zone has closer to the target index at the projected time than without such adjustment. The adjustment is calculated based on a feedback error calculated for a previous substrate. The feedback error for a subsequent substrate is calculated based on a second linear function that fits a sequence of index values associated with reference spectra that best match spectra measured after the polishing parameter is adjusted.