Disclosed is a method of predicting surface quality of a thin slab hot rolled coil. The method includes calculating the Cu equivalent (Cu eq.) of molten steel, applying the calculated Cu equivalent of the molten steel into an equation: 120×(Cu equivalent)2−6×(Cu equivalent) to calculate a surface crack index, and predicting the generation of surface defect of the thin slab hot rolled coil by the surface crack index. A method of producing the thin slab hot rolled coil using the same is also provided. The surface crack defect of the thin slab hot rolled coil can be predicted by calculating the Cu equivalent of the molten steel, and thus a thin slab which meets the quality standard demanded by a consumer can be provided, and this results in increased productivity and product reliability.