A system and method provides analysis of pre- and post-project effects on frequency and severity of operational loss. The method includes the computation of the frequency of incidents and the severity of incidents for equipment based on recorded incident data. Risk, a function of frequency and severity, is calculated before and after a project to determine if the project has changed the risk of an incident in a piece of equipment or facility and if the project has changed the nature of risk (i.e. increasing severity while decreasing frequency). The method may be used to compute forecast estimates of future operational losses, assess goals for improving current performance relative to demonstrated industry performance, and determine statistical confidence intervals of forecast such that risk, and changes in risk, may be visually quantified and communicated.