Techniques for processing impedance data to provide an early warning for heart failure decompensation are described. An example device may be configured to measure intrathoracic impedance values, and increment an index when a determined impedance is less than a reference impedance. The incrementing may be based on the difference between the reference impedances and the determined impedance. In some examples, the amount of incrementing is reduced based on a variability of the impedances, or increased over time so long as the index remains above a threshold, e.g., zero. In some examples, the manner is which the reference impedances are determined changes over time to, for example, address rapid changes in impedance after device or system implantation. In some examples, the index is compared to a threshold to determine whether to provide an alert. In some examples, two thresholds are used to provide hysteresis.