Systems and methods are disclosed for monitoring and managing data transactions, such as SQL transactions. In certain examples, a management subsystem generates an alert identifying degrading database transactions to facilitate preventative tuning or other maintenance. In particular, a monitor module tracks performance measurements (e.g., logical reads) of select transactions. A modeler correlates the performance measurements and assigns first performance model(s) to represent the performance measurements and predicted performance measurements of a particular transaction. A trend change module detects a significant change in a trend and/or variance of the performance measurements and can cause the modeler module to generate a second performance model to represent at least a portion of the performance measurements and the predicted performance measurements of the particular transaction. An interface module triggers an alert when the second performance model indicates that the predicted performance measurements of the particular transaction are degrading at or above a threshold rate.