Methods of assessing risk based on medical data are disclosed herein. In an embodiment, a method of assessing risk associated with medical data includes creating a dataset representing a plurality of patients, the dataset comprising (x,y) pairs for each patient, wherein x represents the medical data collected at a first time, and wherein y is an outcome measurement collected at a second time; binning the (x,y) pairs to form a plurality of binned data sets; computing an average value for x and an average value for y for each binned data set; determining a minimum average value of y based on all of the average values of y; subtracting the minimum average value of y from each average value of y to get a new average value of y for each binned data set; and deriving a function for assessing risk associated with the medical data.