A computer-assisted method for evaluating a financial model. The method may include selecting a financial model describing a distribution of a first financial variable and representing the financial model in a probabilistic network. The model may also include deriving a refined financial model based on the probabilistic network and finding a value of a financial instrument based at least in part on the refined financial model. A property of the financial instrument may be described by the first financial variable. In various embodiments, the method may also include inferring a value of the first financial variable.