A wagering game system and its operations are described herein. In some embodiments, the operations can include receiving, via user input, values for variables related to a wagering game contest and detecting data for gaming activity that occurred, during a past time period. The operations can further include computing an expected value based on the values for the variables and the data for the gaming activity. The expected value represents a theoretical projected amount of money that would be accumulated via a portion of game wagers over a future time period based on the values for the variables and the data for the gaming activity that occurred during the past time period. The operations can further include funding the wagering game contest with a contest prize equivalent to the expected value, where the funding is from a source of money other than from the portion of the game wagers.