A system, and computer usable program product for modeling memory compression are provided in the illustrative embodiments. A subset of candidate pages is received. The subset of candidate pages is a subset of a set of candidate pages used in executing a workload in a data processing system. A candidate page is compressible uncompressed data in a memory associated with the data processing system. The subset of candidate pages is compressed in a scratch space. A compressibility of the workload is computed based on the compression of the subset of candidate pages. Page reference information of the subset of candidate pages is received. A memory reference rate of the workload is determined A recommendation is presented about a memory compression model for the workload in the data processing system.