A system for analyzing a process, comprising a model engine to generate a model of the environment using multiple components defining adjustable elements of the model and including components representing a process for provisioning and de-provisioning of access credentials for an individual in the environment and a risk analyzer to calculate multiple randomized instances of an outcome for the environment using multiple values for parameters of the elements of the model selected from within respective predefined ranges for the parameters, and to use a results plan to provide data for identifying the security risk using the multiple instances.