A method for predicting the occurrence of an undesired operating event for a mobile platform operating within a designated area. The method may involve obtaining a plurality of parameters including a position of the mobile platform within the designated area for determining a kinematic motion of the mobile platform while the mobile platform is operating within the designated area. Information may also be obtained that relates to surface geometry of the designated area. The information related to surface geometry may be used to determine physical constraints within the designated area that limit operation of the mobile platform within the designated area. The plurality of parameters may be used to determine a kinematic motion of the mobile platform within the designated area. The kinematic motion of the mobile platform and the physical constraints may be used to predict if motion of the mobile platform will cause it to incur an undesired operating event.