A system generates occupancy estimates based on a Kinetic-Motion (KM)-based model that predicts the movements of occupants through a region divided into a plurality of segments. The system includes a controller for executing an algorithm representing the KM-based model. The KM-based model includes state equations that define each of the plurality of segments as containing congested portions and uncongested portions. The state equations define the movement of occupants based, in part, on the distinctions made between congested and uncongested portions of each segment.