Methods, computer-readable mediums, and systems analyze hydrocarbon production data from a subsurface region to determine geologic time scale reservoir connectivity and production time scale reservoir connectivity for the subsurface region. Compartments, fluid properties, and fluid distribution are interpreted to determine geologic time scale reservoir connectivity and production time scale reservoir connectivity for the subsurface region. A reservoir connectivity model based on the geologic time scale and production time scale reservoir connectivity for the subsurface region is constructed, wherein the reservoir connectivity model includes a plurality of production scenarios each including reservoir compartments, connections, and connection properties for each scenario. Each of the production scenarios is tested and refined based on production data for the subsurface region.