There are provided methods and apparatus for determining expected distortion in decoded video blocks. An apparatus includes a distortion calculator for calculating an expected distortion for an image block, included in a picture of a video sequence and sent over a lossy channel, using a motion vector for the image block when the motion vector has a non-integer value. The distortion calculator calculates the expected distortion based upon a propagated distortion of at least two neighboring integer pixel positions in a reference picture with respect to the motion vector having the non-integer value. The image block is coded in an inter mode or a SKIP mode.