A target (not-to-exceed) speed for a vehicle over a road segment ahead of the vehicle is established based on a desired relationship with a speed profile of the segment. The speed profile is generated by analyzing a statistical distribution of historical speed data over the segment collected by probe vehicles. A driver alert is activated if the vehicle is likely to exceed the target speed based on at least one measured vehicle dynamic property. The target speed may be established by identifying a baseline road segment over which the vehicle has previously traveled and which is similar to the approaching road segment, comparing a past speed of the vehicle over the baseline segment with a speed profile of the baseline segment to determine a speed differential, and applying the speed differential to the speed profile of the approaching segment.