A disk drive is disclosed wherein a plurality of access commands received from a host are stored in a command queue. An access cost for at least a first and second access command in the command queue is generated, wherein each access cost comprises a seek length and a rotation latency. A first access command is selected from the command queue having a first access cost, and a window is defined relative to the first access cost and a first risk based penalty (RBP) of the first access command, wherein the first RBP represents a probability of missing a first data sector of the first access command. A second access command is selected from the command queue comprising a second access cost within the window. A choice is made between the first and second access commands in response to a second RBP of the second access command.