Distribution parameter mapping determines the bit error probability (BEP) of a burst transmitted from a base station to the mobile station using a modulation and coding scheme (MCS) specified in the EDGE standard. Depending on whether the multi-bit soft decisions of the burst most resemble a Gaussian or a Rician distribution, the statistical parameters μ and σ or A and u are determined. The ratio μ/σ or A/σ is mapped to an empirically determined BEP in a Gaussian or Rician lookup table, respectively. The BEPs are not influenced by the degree of code redundancy in the MCS. The BEPs for the four bursts in a radio block are then averaged, filtered and quantized according to the EDGE standard. The quantization level of the average BEP is reported to the base station so that subsequent radio blocks can be transmitted using an MCS that is appropriate for the estimated BEP.