A computer system selects prospects for insurance policy marketing activities. The computer system stores at least one equation that defines a predictive model responsive to a plurality of independent variables and a plurality of parameters and having an associated error component. The error component includes a spatio-temporal error component. The computer system also evaluates the parameters in order to parameterize the predictive model in such a way as to reduce the error component. Further, the computer system applies the parameterized predictive model to a data set that represents a universe of potential prospects for insurance marketing activities. Still further, the computer system generates a list of selected prospects, based on results of applying the parameterized predictive model to the data set. The list of selected prospects represents a subset of the universe of potential prospects. The computer system also outputs the list of prospective prospects.