A system and method by which, in photoreceptor devices that use non-contact charging, an impending failure of a photoreceptor can be accurately estimated based on a determined thickness of a charge transport layer in the photoreceptor. The systems and methods may include measuring current delivered to the photoreceptor charge transport layer, measuring voltage of the photoreceptor transport layer, determining a slope of the charge device, determining the thickness of the charge transport layer based on at least one of the measured current value, voltage value, or charge device slope, and determining a photoreceptor replacement interval based on the determined thickness.