Embodiments of the present disclosure set forth a method for forecasting data usage in a region covered by a cellular network. The method includes defining a first subregion surrounding a first point of interest in the region; and calculating a forecasted usage amount of the cellular network in the first subregion in a second time slot based on a first usage amount of the first subregion in a first time slot, a second usage amount of a second subregion geographically adjacent to the first subregion in the first time slot, a first probability associated with mobile devices in the first subregion migrating to the second subregion, and a second probability associated with mobile devices in the second subregion migrating to the first subregion.