Techniques and tools for encoding and decoding predicted images in interlaced video are described. For example, a video encoder or decoder computes a motion vector predictor for a motion vector for a portion (e.g., a block or macroblock) of an interlaced P-field, including selecting between using a same polarity or opposite polarity motion vector predictor for the portion. The encoder/decoder processes the motion vector based at least in part on the motion vector predictor computed for the motion vector. The processing can comprise computing a motion vector differential between the motion vector and the motion vector predictor during encoding and reconstructing the motion vector from a motion vector differential and the motion vector predictor during decoding. The selecting can be based at least in part on a count of opposite polarity motion vectors for a neighborhood around the portion and/or a count of same polarity motion vectors.