Methods and systems for monitoring operation of an LED string. An exemplary system includes an LED string, a circuit that supplies current to the LEDs, a current measuring circuit that measures current through the LEDs, a voltage measuring circuit that measures voltage across the LEDs, and a temperature sensor that measures temperature proximate to the LEDs. A processor calculates a predicted string voltage based on a predefined voltage-current curve, number of LEDs, a predefined temperature coefficient value, the measured string current, a measured junction temperature, a life curve function, a prestored calibration string current value, a prestored calibration string voltage value, a prestored junction calibration temperature and an accumulated time value. The process also calculates an error value based on the predicted string voltage and a measured string voltage and generates an indication that there is a failure in the LED string if the calculated error value is greater than the predefined error limit.