A method and apparatus for determining time-varying thresholds for measured metrics are provided. With the method and apparatus, values of a given metric are captured over time. The behavior of the metric is analyzed to determine its seasonality. Correlated historical values of the metric and additional related metrics (cross-correlation) are used as inputs to a feed-forward back propagation neural network, in order to train the network to generalize the behavior of the metric. From this generalized behavior, point-by-point threshold values are calculated. The metric is monitored and the monitored values are compared with the threshold values to determine if the metric has violated its normal time-varying behavior. If so, an event is generated to notify an administrator of the error condition.