Input characterizing one or more economic indicators and a portfolio of accounts can be used to estimate a portfolio level effect of the economic indicators on the portfolio of accounts is estimated. Based on this estimation, an account level effect of the economic indicators is simulated for each of the accounts. The overall affect of the simulated account level effects approximates the portfolio level effect. Simulated account level effects can thereafter be aggregated in order to characterize future risk for the portfolio of accounts. Related apparatus, systems, techniques and articles are also described.