A pavement condition analysis system and method models a state of a roadway by processing at least traffic and weather data to simulate the impact of traffic and weather conditions on a particular section of a transportation infrastructure. Traffic data is ingested from a plurality of different external sources to incorporate various approaches estimating traffic characteristics such as speed, flow, and incidents, into a road condition model to analyze traffic conditions on the roadway in order to improve road condition assessments and/or prediction. A road condition model applies these traffic characteristics, weather data, and other input data relevant to road conditions, accounting for heat and moisture exchanges between the road, the atmosphere, and pavement substrate(s) in a pavement's composition, as further influenced by traffic and road maintenance activities, to generate accurate and reliable simulations and predictions of pavement condition states for motorists, communication to vehicles, use by industry and public entities, and other end uses such as media distribution.