An improved system and method is provided for adaptively refreshing a web page. A base version of the web page may be partitioned into a collection of fragments. Then the collection of fragments may be compared with the corresponding fragments of a recent version of the web page to determine a divergence measurement of the difference between the base version and the recent version of the web page. The divergence measurement may be recorded in a change profile representing a change history of the web page that includes a sequence of numeric pairs indicating a time offset and a divergence measurement of the difference between a version of the web page at the time offset and a base version of the web page. The refresh period for the web page may be adjusted by applying an adaptive refresh policy using the divergence measurements recorded in the change profile.