Systems and methods of intelligent policy enforcement in access networks are disclosed. One such method is implemented in a network device and comprises updating a traffic history with information associated with an incoming packet arriving from or destined to a subscriber link. The method also comprises calculating a drop probability for a next traffic instant and predicting a traffic rate for each of a plurality of flows on the subscriber link. The method also comprises determining whether the incoming packet conforms to a traffic policy associated with the incoming packet. The method also comprises determining whether surplus bandwidth is available on the subscriber link. The method also comprises forwarding the packet responsive to the determination that the incoming packet does not conform and that surplus bandwidth is available.