An estimation method includes a heating step in which a recording bit, on which a reference signal is recorded, is heated under each of heating conditions having different heating temperatures, the recording bit being at least one recording bit in the magnetic recording medium, and a measurement step in which a signal intensity with respect to the reference signal recorded in the recording bit after heating is measured under each of the heating conditions of the heating step. Based on the signal intensities with respect to the reference signal respectively measured in the measurement step, the distribution width of the Curie temperatures of the plurality of magnetic grains that form the magnetic recording layer is estimated.