A method for estimating a projected path of travel for a vehicle on a road includes monitoring a plurality of sensor inputs, determining a road geometry in front of the vehicle based upon the monitored sensor inputs, determining a vehicle position in relation to the road geometry based upon the monitored sensor inputs, determining a plurality of particle points in front of the vehicle representing a potential path of travel from the road geometry and the vehicle position, and utilizing iteratively determined ones of the plurality of particle points to navigate the vehicle including omitting ones of the plurality of particle points passed by the vehicle.